Zambia Road Safety Trust

Zambia to hit over 3,000 road fatalities by end of 2026

22 October 2026Press Releases · Research & Data

Burma Road in Chilenje - Road Interventions carried out by the ZRST and LCC

ZRST analysis of ten years of data shows road deaths heading for their highest level since at least 2012, with RTSA’s own 2026 target now out of reach

Lusaka, 22 October 2026. On current trends, Zambia will record more than 3,000 road deaths in 2026. That would be the highest annual total in the Road Transport and Safety Agency’s (RTSA) published records, which go back to 2012, according to analysis by the Zambia Road Safety Trust (ZRST).

Zambia Police recorded 2,286 road deaths between January and September 2026, compared with 1,893 in the same period of 2025, an increase of 21%. If the last quarter of 2026 follows the same pattern, ZRST projects the year will end with between 3,000 and 3,300 deaths.

How close is 3,000?

In the last three months of 2025, police recorded 667 road deaths. With 2,286 deaths already recorded this year, Zambia will pass 3,000 if deaths between October and December 2026 reach 715, a rise of just 7% on the same period last year.

Every quarter of 2026 so far has risen by more than that: 37% in January to March, 16% in April to June and 14% in July to September. Even if the final quarter is no worse than last year, 2026 will end with about 2,950 deaths, still the highest since at least 2012. The final quarter includes the festive season, and police have already said they will step up enforcement as it approaches.

Ten years of road deaths

Between 2016 and 2025, official records show 20,628 road deaths in Zambia. Deaths fell every year from 2,206 in 2016 to 1,690 in 2020, the first year of COVID-19. They have risen since, with one dip in 2023: 2,163 in 2021, 2,240 in 2022, 2,011 in 2023, 2,199 in 2024 and 2,567 in 2025.

A 2026 total above 3,000 would be at least 78% higher than in 2020 and at least 36% higher than in 2016.

Part of the rise reflects a growing population. RTSA put the death rate at 13.8 per 100,000 people in 2016 and 9 in 2020. Using UN population estimates, a total of 3,000 to 3,300 deaths in 2026 would mean a rate of about 13 to 15 per 100,000. The progress made between 2016 and 2020 has been lost.

A target that will not be met

RTSA’s Strategic Plan for 2022 to 2026 committed to cutting road deaths by 30% by 2026 from the 2021 level of 2,163. The plan’s own results framework set a stricter target of 50%. That means between about 1,080 and 1,510 deaths this year, and the projected total is roughly two to three times higher.

The same plan aimed to train every public service vehicle driver in defensive driving by December 2024, up from 30%, and to raise fleet safety compliance from 23% to 80%. ZRST could not find any published report of progress against either target.

What has been tried

Zambia has not lacked plans. RTSA’s strategic plan sits alongside the National Transport Policy (2019 to 2028), a national road safety strategy and a rural road safety strategy. In 2017, the government awarded a 17-year concession for traffic surveillance and speed enforcement systems, and RTSA has since announced fixed and mobile speed cameras. In February 2026, police suspended roadblocks and checkpoints nationwide, apart from six locations. Earlier this year, government lifted the night travel ban on public service vehicles.

In ZRST’s view, what has been missing is delivery and accountability. Targets are set, but progress against them is rarely reported in public.

The main challenges

More crashes, not deadlier ones. Recorded crashes rose 19% between January and September 2026, while deaths per injury crash stayed the same. More traffic is producing more crashes, and road safety measures are not keeping up.
Enforcement has stalled. Between July and September 2026, crashes rose 27% on the year before, while recorded traffic offences rose 1%.
Unprotected road users. In 2025, 64% of people killed were pedestrians, motorcyclists, pillion passengers or cyclists. Pedestrians alone were 36%.
Children. Police recorded 243 child deaths in 2025, and 91 between July and September 2026.
Undercounting. For 2021, the World Health Organization estimated 3,338 road deaths in Zambia, against 2,163 recorded. That makes the true toll about 1.5 times the official count.
Cost. UNDP estimates that road crashes cost Zambia about 4.7% of GDP each year.

“For a few years we were getting this right, and we should say that,” said Daniel Mwamba, Executive Director of ZRST. “What worries me is that nobody was held to the 2026 target, so nobody noticed when we drifted away from it. I’m not sure another strategy document is the answer. We have several. What we need is someone in government who is answerable every quarter for the number of people dying.”

ZRST calls for

A named lead agency reporting road deaths against target every quarter, in public, with a ring-fenced budget.
Visible speed enforcement on the highest-crash corridors before the festive season, and publication of how many speed cameras are operating and what they detect.
Safe crossings, footpaths and 30 km/h zones near schools and markets, where pedestrians and children die.
A new national target for 2030, in line with the UN Decade of Action’s goal of halving road deaths, with milestones each year.
Better data, including deaths by road user and age every quarter, and linking police and hospital records.

ENDS

Notes to editors

Annual road deaths

Year	Deaths	Source
2016	2,206	RTSA
2017	1,989	RTSA
2018	1,817	RTSA
2019	1,746	RTSA
2020	1,690	RTSA
2021	2,163	RTSA
2022	2,240	RTSA
2023	2,011	RTSA
2024	2,199	Zambia Police
2025	2,567	Zambia Police
2026 (projected)	3,000 to 3,300	ZRST analysis

Quarterly road deaths

Quarter	2025	2026	Change
January to March	498	681	+37%
April to June	642	746	+16%
July to September	753	859	+14%
October to December	667	715 needed to pass 3,000	+7%

The 2025 quarterly figures add up to 2,560. The police annual total for 2025 is 2,567, probably because of late-recorded deaths.
Figures for 2016 to 2023 come from RTSA, and figures for 2024 to 2026 come from Zambia Police. The two sources may differ slightly.
ZRST’s full technical report, including methods: Road deaths are rising because crashes are rising, and enforcement has not kept up.

Media contact: Daniel Mwamba, Executive Director, daniel.mwamba@zambianroadsafety.org