Road Safety Data Analysis
A Zambia Road Safety Trust analysis of Zambia Police Service holiday-period statistics
The Zambia Police Service recorded 409 road traffic crashes during the 2026 Heroes and Unity holiday period, including 40 fatal crashes and 43 deaths. Total crashes rose by 18.6 percent compared with the same period in 2025, while fatal crashes increased by 37.9 percent and recorded traffic offences fell by 22.8 percent.
Key findings
Summary
The Zambia Police Service recorded 409 road traffic crashes countrywide during the 2026 Heroes and Unity holiday period, from 18:00 hours on 3 July to 06:00 hours on 8 July 2026. Forty of these crashes were fatal and 43 people died. A further 93 people were seriously injured and 129 sustained minor injuries.
This is the second consecutive year in which 43 people have died during the same holiday period. Total crashes increased from 345 in 2025 to 409 in 2026, a rise of 64 crashes or 18.6 percent. Fatal crashes increased from 29 to 40.
The headline the public may hear is that total casualties fell from 279 in 2025 to 265 in 2026. That reading is misleading. More crashes occurred, more of them were fatal, and the death toll did not fall. A modest decline in injury counts alongside a rise in fatal crashes is not evidence that the roads became safer. It shows that the pattern of crash outcomes changed for reasons the published data cannot yet explain.
Recorded traffic offences fell by 22.8 percent over the same period, from 1,843 to 1,423, while crashes rose. The police statement does not explain this divergence, and the Zambia Road Safety Trust considers it one of the most important unanswered questions in the data.
The 2026 holiday-period results
According to the statement issued by Police Public Relations Officer Godfrey Chilabi, the reporting window ran from 18:00 hours on Friday, 3 July 2026, to 06:00 hours on Wednesday, 8 July 2026. Within that period, the Zambia Police Service recorded:
- 409 road traffic crashes in total;
- 40 fatal crashes, resulting in 43 deaths;
- 56 serious-injury crashes, leaving 93 people seriously injured;
- 100 slight-injury crashes, with 129 people sustaining minor injuries;
- 213 damage-only crashes; and
- 20 hit-and-run crashes, of which 3 were fatal, 8 caused serious injury, 3 caused slight injury and 6 involved damage only.
The four crash categories sum correctly to 409. Total recorded casualties deaths plus serious and minor injuries sum to 265.
Zambia 2026 holiday road crashes compared with 2025
| Indicator | 2025 | 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total crashes | 345 | 409 | +64 (+18.6%) |
| Fatal crashes | 29 | 40 | +11 (+37.9%) |
| Deaths | 43 | 43 | No change |
| Serious-injury crashes | 46 | 56 | +10 |
| People seriously injured | 119 | 93 | −26 |
| Slight-injury crashes | 86 | 100 | +14 |
| People with minor injuries | 117 | 129 | +12 |
| Damage-only crashes | 184 | 213 | +29 |
| Total casualties | 279 | 265 | −14 (−5.0%) |
| Recorded traffic offences | 1,843 | 1,423 | −420 (−22.8%) |
Crash frequency worsened across every category
Fatal, serious-injury, slight-injury and damage-only crashes all increased. The 37.9 percent rise in fatal crashes was the sharpest deterioration in the series.
The unchanged death toll conceals a change in crash outcomes
In 2025, 29 fatal crashes produced 43 deaths, an average of 1.48 deaths per fatal crash. In 2026, 40 fatal crashes produced the same 43 deaths, an average of 1.08 deaths per fatal crash.
The average number of people seriously injured per serious-injury crash also fell, from approximately 2.6 in 2025 to 1.7 in 2026. The published data do not explain why. Possible explanations could include fewer high-occupancy vehicle crashes, differences in crash types or differences in recording practice. None of these explanations can be confirmed from the statement.
A decline in casualties is not evidence of safer roads
The 5 percent fall in total casualties should not be presented as an improvement. When total crashes rise by 18.6 percent, fatal crashes rise by 37.9 percent and 43 people die, a small decline in the injury count is not a safety gain. It is a change in the composition of a worsening crash picture.
Provincial distribution
Lusaka Province recorded 176 of the 409 crashes, representing 43.0 percent of the national total. Copperbelt followed with 57 crashes, Southern with 38 and North-Western with 32.
| Province | Reported crashes | Share of national total |
|---|---|---|
| Lusaka | 176 | 43.0% |
| Copperbelt | 57 | 13.9% |
| Southern | 38 | 9.3% |
| North-Western | 32 | 7.8% |
| Central | 27 | 6.6% |
| Eastern | 20 | 4.9% |
| Luapula | 20 | 4.9% |
| Muchinga | 16 | 3.9% |
| Western | 14 | 3.4% |
| Northern | 9 | 2.2% |
| Total | 409 | 100.0% |
Lusaka’s share is large and is consistent with the province’s position in the 2025 holiday data, when it recorded 141 of 345 crashes. However, a high crash count is not the same as a high individual crash risk.
Lusaka concentrates a large share of the country’s population, registered vehicles, traffic volume and urban trips. Valid comparisons of risk between provinces would require exposure data such as population, vehicle registrations, traffic counts, road length and distance travelled. These measures were not included in the holiday statement.
The raw count does support an operational conclusion: Lusaka is where enforcement and post-crash response services face the greatest holiday-period volume and where targeted deployment could address the largest number of reported crashes.
Contributing factors reported by police
The police attributed most of the crashes to human error. The specific factors listed were excessive speed, misjudging clearance, negligent reversing, failure to keep to the nearside and improper overtaking, together with non-compliance with traffic regulations and increased road traffic volume.
These are the reported police findings. The statement provides no percentage breakdown by factor, so no responsible claim can be made about how many crashes each factor caused.
Speed, dangerous overtaking and poor lane discipline are particularly relevant to severe crashes because they can increase both the likelihood of a collision and the force of impact. However, the published aggregate data do not show which factors were associated with fatal, serious-injury or lower-severity crashes.
Enforcement: fewer recorded offences, more crashes
Recorded traffic offences fell from 1,843 in 2025 to 1,423 in 2026, a reduction of 420 offences or 22.8 percent. Admission-of-guilt fines collected amounted to K666,940.
Read alongside an 18.6 percent increase in crashes, this decline requires explanation. At least four interpretations are possible:
- driver compliance may have improved in the locations where enforcement was conducted;
- the intensity or duration of traffic enforcement may have declined;
- the locations and times of enforcement operations may have changed; or
- the way offences were recorded may have differed.
The first interpretation sits uneasily beside the increase in total and fatal crashes. The published data do not provide enough information to confirm any explanation, and no firm conclusion should be drawn without enforcement deployment records.
A meaningful assessment would require information on officer-hours, patrol locations, speed checks, vehicles screened, offence types, arrests and crash outcomes on the corridors where enforcement took place.
Hit-and-run crashes
Twenty hit-and-run crashes were recorded, including three fatal cases, eight serious-injury crashes, three slight-injury crashes and six damage-only incidents.
Beyond the criminal dimension, hit-and-run crashes have a direct public-health consequence. When a driver leaves the scene, emergency response may be delayed, evidence may be lost and victims may be denied urgent care during the period when timely treatment can be decisive.
The three fatal cases also leave bereaved families facing an unresolved investigation. This analysis makes no claim about the motives of the drivers involved. It does, however, support swift and properly resourced investigation of all 20 cases, together with public reporting on progress where this does not compromise active inquiries.
The election campaign period raises the stakes
Campaign activity ahead of the general election is expected to increase movement across the country. Foreseeable risks include long-distance travel by supporters and officials, political convoys, night travel, overloaded vehicles, large pedestrian crowds around rallies and trading centres, and pressure on traffic enforcement resources.
These are forward-looking risk considerations. They are not confirmed causes of the holiday crashes analysed in this article. The holiday figures do, however, establish a concerning baseline from which the campaign travel period begins.
The Zambia Police Service has stated that it will strengthen traffic enforcement and road safety awareness and that traffic laws will be applied regardless of political affiliation. Consistent enforcement will be essential if campaign-related travel is to be managed without adding to the country’s road trauma.
Data limitations
Two limitations should be recorded.
First, the comparative 2025 figures cited in the 2026 police statement do not fully match figures reported in the contemporaneous July 2025 release. The earlier release reported 42 serious-injury crashes and 46 people seriously injured, while the 2026 statement gives 46 serious-injury crashes and 119 people seriously injured for the same 2025 period.
This analysis preserves the figures contained in the 2026 statement because they reconcile with the comparative totals presented in that statement. The discrepancy nevertheless points to the need for the Zambia Police Service to publish a reconciled and methodologically stable statistical series.
Second, the statement contains no exposure data and no breakdown by road-user type, vehicle type, time of day, road, collision type or individual contributing factor. These gaps limit what analysts inside and outside government can responsibly conclude.
ZRST position and recommendations
Forty-three deaths in less than five days represent a preventable failure of the systems intended to protect people on Zambia’s roads. Ahead of and throughout the election campaign period, the Zambia Road Safety Trust recommends the following measures:
- Visible and intelligence-led speed enforcement on corridors and at times where holiday crashes are concentrated, using crash-location data already held by the police.
- Targeted patrols on high-risk corridors, supported by clear deployment plans and measurable safety outcomes.
- Firm action against dangerous overtaking and reckless driving, particularly on high-speed two-lane roads and settlement approaches.
- Rapid and properly resourced investigation of all 20 hit-and-run crashes, including public reporting on progress in the three fatal cases where this does not compromise investigations.
- Roadworthiness and driver-hour checks for public-service and campaign vehicles, agreed with political parties and fleet operators before organised travel begins.
- Physical protection of pedestrians at trading centres, settlements, bus stops, rally sites and other places where large numbers of people gather near traffic.
- Public release of disaggregated crash data by road user, location, time, collision type, vehicle type and contributing factor.
- A coordinated campaign-period road safety mechanism involving the Zambia Police Service, RTSA, RDA, local authorities, political parties, fleet operators and civil-society organisations.
Conclusion
The same holiday period, one year apart, has now taken 43 lives twice. Between the two periods, total crashes rose by nearly one-fifth, fatal crashes rose by more than one-third and recorded traffic offences fell by almost one-quarter.
Nothing in these figures indicates that the problem is correcting itself. The deaths recorded between 3 and 8 July 2026 were foreseeable, and a substantial share could have been prevented through sustained enforcement, safer infrastructure, stronger management of fleet and campaign travel, and better protection for pedestrians.
Zambia requires a road safety response that measures success by deaths and serious injuries prevented, not only by the number of fines issued or awareness messages delivered.